K A S H R U T . C O M_©

New Report: Major disruption in food and agriculture in next decade

posted February 6, 2020 from RethinkX:

"RethinkX projects collapse of dairy & cattle industries by 2030 as animal meat is replaced by cheaper, higher quality food made from precision fermentation protein."

"The fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption of food and agriculture in history, driven by technology and new business models, is underway. By 2030, modern food products will be higher quality and cost less than half the price of the animal- derived foods they replace, the dairy and cattle industries will have collapsed, and the rest of the livestock industry will follow. That’s according to a new report, “Rethinking Food and Agriculture 2020-2030 -- The Second Domestication of Plants and Animals, the Disruption of the Cow, and the Collapse of Industrial Livestock Farming,” released by RethinkX, an independent think tank that analyzes and forecasts the scope, speed and scale of technology-driven disruption and its implications across society. "

"Precision fermentation (PF) is a process that enables the programming of micro-organisms to produce almost any complex organic molecule. Its costs are dropping exponentially because of rapid improvements in underlying biological and information technologies. The cost to produce a single molecule using PF has fallen from $1 million per kilogram in 2000, to about $100 today. Assuming existing technologies and using well-established cost curves, the report projects that these costs will fall below $10 per kilogram by 2025, and that these proteins will be five times cheaper than traditional animal proteins by 2030 and 10 times cheaper by 2035.

"By 2030, modern food products will cost less than half as much to produce as the animal-derived products they replace. At the same time, this new production system has the potential to spur competition and fast iteration of products that are ever cheaper and ever better: more nutritious, healthier, better tasting, more convenient, and more varied, as long as open markets and nutritional standards are protected."

"The report details the way different parts of the cow (collagen, milk, meat and leather) and the markets they serve will be disrupted separately and concurrently by different technologies and business-model innovations that overlap, reinforce and accelerate each other. "

"The report analyzes the way technology and new models of production flip the current food production system on its head. Instead of growing a whole cow to break it down into products, PF designs and customizes individual molecules to build products. Development is done in a manner similar to the software industry: companies and individuals will build components within layers of the equivalent of a software stack that can be used according to individual needs. The food developer is like an app developer, using the stack that is most appropriate according to market needs. "

"Highlights of the report findings include:

By 2030, the number of cows in the U.S. will have fallen by 50%. At current prices, revenues of the U.S. beef and dairy industry and their suppliers, which together exceed $400bn today, will decline by at least 50%.
• By 2030 the market for ground beef by volume will have shrunk by 70%, steak market by 30% and dairy market by almost 90%. The markets for other cow products (leather, collagen, etc.) are likely to decline more than 90%. All together, demand for cow products will fall by more than 50%.
• By 2030, the U.S. dairy and cattle industry will have collapsed. Conventional farming production costs will double.
• By 2035, U.S. demand for beef and dairy products will be down by nearly 90%, leaving only local specialty farms in operation. Industrial farmland values will collapse by 40-80%.
• The volume of crops needed to feed cattle in the U.S. will fall by 50% from 155 million tons in 2018 to 80 million tons in 2030, causing cattle feed production revenues to fall by more than 50% from 60 billion in 2019 to less than $30 billion in 2030.
• Other livestock industries will suffer similar disruptions, and the knock-on effects for crop farmers and businesses throughout the value chain will be severe.

  "or policymakers, the report identifies critical choices that can accelerate or slow down disruption or impede its size and scale, and can expand or contract its benefits. "