K A S H R U T . C O M_©

May 14, 2026 from The Shelby Report:

"Food-at-home prices rose 0.7 percent in April – the sharpest monthly increase so far this year – as energy market disruptions and ongoing supply chain pressures pushed grocery costs higher for American families and retailers alike.

"The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported May 12 that the overall Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, with food away from home increasing a more modest 0.2 percent over the same period.

"Five of the six major grocery store food group indexes moved higher in April. The index for meats, poultry, fish and eggs increased 1.3 percent, with beef alone rising 2.7 percent. Fruits and vegetables advanced 1.8 percent, nonalcoholic beverages rose 1.1 percent, dairy and related products increased 0.8 percent and cereals and bakery products edged up 0.1 percent. Over the past 12 months, food-at-home prices are up 2.9 percent, according to BLS – aligning with USDA’s current full-year forecast for 2026.

"FMI – The Food Industry Association responded to the April data by pointing to global energy market instability as a central factor.

"The energy picture underlying these numbers is stark. Energy prices soared 17.9 percent year-over-year in April, led by a 54.3 percent increase in fuel oil and a 28.4 percent jump in gasoline. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz – following military strikes earlier this spring – has stalled shipping and caused Brent crude prices to remain elevated near $120 per barrel. These disruptions have also created fertilizer bottlenecks during the critical North American planting season.

"The cost of moving food remains a primary concern for the industry. While the national average for diesel sits at $5.67 per gallon, prices in high-cost regions like the West Coast have spiked past $7.00, making the transport of perishable goods increasingly expensive.

"Tariffs continue to add pressure in the produce category. While a recent court ruling on May 7 challenged the 10 percent duty on Mexican tomatoes, the long-standing 17.5 percent anti-dumping deposit rate continues to impact the supply chain for a crop that accounts for nearly two-thirds of U.S. consumption. Supply chain experts warn that food and beverage manufacturers may have limited ability to absorb these costs, having already deployed most available tools in response to previous pandemic-era and tariff-related increases.

"Significant uncertainty remains in the outlook, with labor, transportation, energy, weather, and trade disputes all contributing to a wide forecasting range. USDA’s prediction interval for food-at-home CPI in 2026 currently spans 0.0 percent to 4.8 percent."